Onchain trading
Market creation, staking, resolution, dispute, stale-dispute cancel, and claim are contract interactions.
Arc Testnet prediction market documentation
Everything needed to use, deploy, and understand AuraPredict.
AuraPredict is a YES/NO prediction market dapp on Arc Testnet. It combines stablecoin staking, AI-assisted evidence review, dispute protection, protocol fees, a public AuraPredict indexer, wallet profiles, searchable bet history, and Aura Points. Its current contract adds onchain source/rule terms, enforced resolution timing, configurable settlement assets, signed-Aura hooks, and Circle Agent Wallet-backed authority/oracle proposal support.
Overview
What AuraPredict is
AuraPredict is a testnet prediction market venue for binary questions. Traders stake stablecoins on YES or NO, results follow an evidence and review flow, and winners claim payout from the contract. The product is designed to make public forecasting measurable: every wallet can build history, PNL, win rate, Aura Points, and creator reputation.
Fast read layer
The indexer reads Arc events and exposes market stats, per-token USDC/EURC volume, activity, wallet-searchable history, and leaderboard data.
Social layer
Profiles, comments, evidence links, follows, share links, and reputation make forecasting public.
Aura Agent
AI drafts markets, checks duplicate risk, helps define source-based rules, and shows resolution suggestions.
Market terms
Every new market stores its primary source, fallback source, and resolution rule onchain.
AI receipts
A visible suggested outcome, confidence, receipt, and settlement report assist resolution. The contract can anchor evidence and receipt hashes in the signed proposal, and can later accept signed Aura attestations.
Circle Agent Wallet
The indexer can submit eligible high-confidence Oracle proposals through a configured Circle Agent Wallet when the market's resolution mode allows that signer.
Policy controls
Operational controls can pause new market exposure, allowlist creators, or block new positions while preserving settlement and claims for existing markets.
Owner dashboard
The protocol owner wallet can open a private management view for project metrics, user activity, token volume, fee balances, and fee withdrawal.
Users
Use AuraPredict
- Open app.auraon.xyz.
- Connect MetaMask, Rabby, OKX, Zerion, or another injected EVM wallet.
- Switch to Arc Testnet when prompted, or add the network manually with the settings above.
- Fund the wallet with Arc Testnet USDC or EURC from the faucet shortcut in the wallet menu.
- Open a market, choose YES or NO, enter the market's settlement token amount, confirm the wallet transaction.
- Track the market in your profile. If your position wins after finalization, claim payout.
Profile data
- Wallet display name and public profile link.
- Available USDC and EURC balances on Arc Testnet.
- Copy wallet address and faucet shortcut from the wallet menu.
- Markets participated and markets created.
- Resolved wins, losses, PNL, win streak, and claimable payout.
Notifications
- Markets that need creator resolution.
- Results ready to finalize.
- Owner alerts when resolver proposal differs from AI suggestion.
- Owner alerts when a dispute is opened and needs review.
- Stale disputes that can be canceled to refund both sides.
- Claims available after settlement.
- Transaction confirmation links to Arcscan.
Use a testnet-only wallet. AuraPredict is not a mainnet financial product.
Creators
Create clear markets
Question checklist
- Use one clear YES/NO outcome.
- Set trading close time separately from the event's resolution time when needed.
- Add a primary resolution source URL before launch.
- Add a resolution rule that defines value + timestamp precisely.
- Avoid subjective words such as successful, major, best, or viral.
- Review duplicate-risk suggestions before publishing.
Resolution checklist
- Wait until the event timestamp stated in the resolution rule has passed.
- Open Resolution actions to view or request Aura's suggested result and confidence.
- Review the settlement report: AI suggestion, creator proposal, dispute status, YES/NO pools, volume, and timing.
- Attach supporting source links before proposing a result.
- Apply Aura's suggestion or explicitly propose a different result for owner review.
- Use Cancel only when the market cannot be fairly resolved.
- Wait through the dispute window before treating the result as final.
- Keep official sources and screenshots for contested results.
Contract
Smart contract behavior
Create
Creator sets trading close time, resolution time, settlement asset, primary source, fallback source, resolution rule, and a resolution mode; bond and any configured creation fee are locked in that asset.
Trade
Users stake the market's configured stablecoin on YES or NO before trading closes. The app checks selected-token balance and allowance before sending the transaction.
Propose
The contract rejects proposals before its onchain resolution time. Depending on mode, creator, owner, configured authority, Circle Agent Wallet signer, signed Aura attestation, or an approved adapter can guide YES, NO, or Cancel.
Dispute
Only users with a position in that market can dispute during the dispute window with a dispute bond.
Stale dispute
If a dispute is not finalized after the grace period, anyone can cancel it and refund users.
Claim
After finalization, winners claim payout or both sides refund if canceled. Bonds and refunds use pull withdrawals to avoid blocking settlement.
Deployment status: the primary AuraPredict app and indexer now target the V5 deployment configured by
VITE_AURAPREDICT_V5_ADDRESS and VITE_AURAPREDICT_V5_DEPLOYMENT_BLOCK.
Arc USDC has a native gas representation and an ERC-20 interface for the same asset. The active contract uses the official ERC-20 interface at
0x3600000000000000000000000000000000000000 for allowance-based settlement and keeps amounts at 6 decimals.
Multi-asset scope: the active contract accepts 6-decimal settlement stablecoins such as USDC and optional EURC. A market settles and refunds only in the token selected when it was created. AuraPredict does not perform FX conversion; dashboards report USDC and EURC volume separately.
Reporting update: the app and indexer expose token-specific volume and liquidity rows, so USDC and EURC activity is shown separately instead of being merged into one generic total.
Wallet UX: the app shows USDC and EURC balances side by side, provides swap access from the market panel and Profile, exposes a faucet shortcut, and blocks predictable create/stake/dispute failures when the selected token balance is too low.
Swap access: an active market or the user's Profile can offer a
USDC <-> EURC quote on Arc Testnet. Aura tries Circle App Kit first when VITE_CIRCLE_APP_KIT_KEY is configured, then falls back to LI.FI if no App Kit route is available. The UI shows estimated and minimum receive amounts, supports user-selected price tolerance, and expires old quotes to reduce failed swaps when testnet liquidity moves. The trader signs that swap in their wallet before staking; the market still settles, refunds, and pays winners only in its configured token.
Market browsing: market cards are compact click-through summaries with category, status, question, YES/NO percentages, pool sizes, market id, and volume. Betting and settlement actions live inside the market detail page.
Settlement report: the final-action area now summarizes Aura's suggestion, Oracle suggestion, the creator or resolver proposal, dispute or owner-review state, YES/NO pools, total volume, and the timing windows. It is designed so the next signer can understand what happened before selecting Final YES, Final NO, or Final Cancel.
Shared source rule: new markets keep a human-readable rule plus structured rule metadata onchain. Aura Agent, Oracle adapters, the resolver, and the final reviewer can all read the same source, fallback source, event time, comparator, target, and asset context.
AI resolution
AI-assisted resolution with onchain accountability
AuraPredict keeps Aura Agent's calculation off-chain. After the event timestamp in the rule, Resolution actions can show a suggested YES or NO outcome, confidence, supporting detail, a receipt, and a settlement report. The report compares Aura's suggestion, an optional Oracle proposal, the creator or resolver proposal, dispute/review status, pool balances, volume, and timing windows before final action. The market's source and rule are already onchain, and the wallet-signed proposal can commit the evidence hash and AI receipt hash while the detailed report remains in the indexer.
Why this design: Aura helps a resolver check evidence and spot questionable decisions, while wallet-signed proposals, disputes, and finalization remain the settlement controls.
Current production mode: Aura signed attestations are supported by the active contract but disabled until a dedicated signer is configured. Aura remains decision support. Objective Oracle proposals can be auto-submitted through the configured Circle Agent Wallet when confidence and signer permissions pass policy, while proposals that need extra trust still move through owner or authority review.
Oracle proposal v1: for objective markets, the indexer can separately check sources such as Binance 1-minute crypto price data, Yahoo chart data for macro assets, and health/status endpoints. The Oracle result is displayed for reviewers and can become a Circle Agent Wallet-signed proposal, but it still does not finalize funds.
Rule alignment: when a market includes structured rule metadata, Aura and Oracle both receive the same comparator, target, source URL, asset, and timestamp. This reduces cases where the AI treats an objective price check as missing evidence while Oracle has already observed the value.
Source router: before Aura reviews deadline-style publish, announce, blog, news, fixture, or schedule markets, the indexer scans the market's primary source, fallback source, embedded URLs, and a small official-source registry for sources such as Circle, Arc, OpenAI, status pages, sports schedules, and selected government pages. It records qualifying items, missing items, or timestamp gaps as evidence rows so the AI receives source facts instead of relying on memory.
Define the rule
At creation, the market records a source link, an exact UTC event timestamp, and a clear YES/NO rule.
Reach the event time
Trading may close first, but the app does not expose result proposal actions until the rule's actual timestamp has passed.
Review Aura
The resolver sees or requests Aura's outcome suggestion and confidence, then can open the detailed rationale and receipt.
Propose result
The resolver, configured authority, or Circle Agent Wallet signer can use the suggested outcome or choose another permitted outcome; only a signed proposal changes contract state and stores evidence and receipt commitments.
Review and dispute
A mismatch with Aura can be held for authority review. A user dispute also routes the result for review before final settlement.
Visible in the market
Resolution actions show Aura's suggested YES or NO outcome and confidence above the proposal buttons. The settlement report stays in the same area so reviewers can see AI choice, creator proposal, dispute status, and deadline context before signing.
Saved receipt behavior
Opening a market can display a previously saved receipt without spending a new AI request. Only asking or refreshing Aura requests a new evaluation.
For an explicit by-deadline event question, Aura can suggest NO after the
deadline if reviewed evidence provides no credible confirmation of that event.
It still displays confidence and risk; unclear rules or conflicting evidence require review.
Aura Agent is decision support, not an autonomous oracle. It cannot settle a market
by itself: the contract proposal, dispute window, and finalization remain authoritative.
Oracle proposals
Objective Oracle proposal v1
AuraPredict now has a source-based Oracle proposal layer in the indexer. It is separate from Aura Agent: it is designed for objective markets that can be checked by fetching data from a known source, not for open-ended news interpretation. The Oracle result appears in the market's settlement report beside Aura's suggestion, the creator/resolver proposal, dispute state, pools, volume, and timing windows.
Oracle proposal v1 does not settle funds by itself. It produces a visible YES, NO, Cancel,
unsupported, or needs-review signal. A resolver, owner, authority, Circle Agent Wallet, or approved
adapter still needs to sign the contract action that changes market state.
For markets with structured rule metadata, adapter detection no longer depends only on natural-language guessing. Crypto and macro adapters use the stored asset, comparator, target, source, and resolution timestamp when available.
Crypto price adapter
Checks BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, AVAX, and LINK markets against Binance 1-minute klines, with a near-time CoinGecko fallback when exact-minute data is unavailable.
Macro chart adapter
Checks gold and US Dollar Index markets against Yahoo chart data near the market's onchain resolution timestamp.
Economic release adapter
Reads official BLS releases for CPI/PPI markets, FRED data for Fed target-rate markets, and EIA weekly data for crude inventory markets.
Stock adapter
Checks equity closing-price markets against Yahoo chart data at the resolution timestamp, with weekend and holiday calendar guards.
Sports scoreboard adapter
Uses deterministic schedule and final-score data such as the MLB schedule API and league scoreboards instead of inferring results from memory.
Health/status adapter
Checks API health endpoints, JSON ok: true responses, HTTP 200 status, and supported public status pages.
Liquidity rule
If YES pool or NO pool is empty, Oracle suggests Cancel/Refund instead of allowing a one-sided YES/NO resolution.
No AI quota
Oracle proposals are deterministic source checks and do not consume Gemini/OpenAI requests. Aura Agent is still used for reasoning-heavy market review.
Manual review boundary
Listing, legal tender, complex sports, ambiguous news, or unsupported sources return needs-review/unsupported instead of a false automated answer.
Market reaches resolution time
The contract and UI wait until the onchain resolution timestamp before result actions are available.
Indexer checks adapter
The Oracle route attempts a matching adapter based on the market question, source URL, and resolution rule.
Settlement report updates
The reviewer sees Oracle suggestion, confidence, observed value, source links, and checks alongside Aura and dispute context.
Proposal is submitted
A permitted resolver can sign manually, or the indexer can auto-submit the first proposal through Circle Agent Wallet when automation is enabled and confidence is high enough.
Review stays open
Auto-propose does not auto-finalize funded markets. Dispute, owner review, finalization, cancel, and claim still run through the contract.
Open infrastructure
Open Prediction Market Infrastructure on Arc
AuraPredict is not only a YES/NO trading UI. The current stack exposes reusable market data, AI insight, public oracle receipts, embeddable market cards, and Unified Balance funding flows so other Arc apps can route users into prediction-market activity without rebuilding the whole settlement layer.
API and hot-market feeds
Builders can read live markets, activity, AI insight, hot-market summaries, public receipts, and oracle reputation from the indexer.
Embeddable cards
A compact market HTML endpoint can be embedded in partner pages, docs, and demos while users still open AuraPredict for wallet-signed actions.
Public oracle receipts
Each AI/Oracle check can expose outcome, confidence, evidence links, receipt hash, data hash, tx hash, and dispute state.
Unified Balance funding
The app helps users bring testnet USDC toward Arc before staking; market contracts still hold funds and enforce final settlement.
Boundary: these APIs are read-only. AI proposes and explains; evidence and hashes make the decision inspectable; the Arc contract still enforces proposal, dispute, finalization, and claim rules.
Indexer
Indexer and data flow
The frontend can read directly from Arc RPC, but production UX is smoother with the AuraPredict indexer. The indexer reads contract events, stores JSON snapshots, and serves fast read endpoints for stats, market rows, activity, leaderboard views, social data, AI resolution receipts, and objective Oracle proposals.
Current production indexer endpoint:
https://api.auraon.xyzWallet
Frontend
Indexer
Arc RPC
Contract
Arcscan
Run locally
npm run indexer
npm run devOperators
Local development and owner operations
Owner-only operations live behind the connected protocol owner wallet in the app. The Owner page shows market counts, player activity, trades, comments, evidence rows, USDC/EURC volume, protocol fee balances, contract controls, and fee withdrawal actions.
Project checks
npm install
npm run compile
npm test
npm run buildFrontend environment
VITE_AURAPREDICT_V5_ADDRESS=0xb3B74ee71a02a25eB668A6206ed3F74b3444611A
VITE_PREDICTION_MARKET_ADDRESS=0xb3B74ee71a02a25eB668A6206ed3F74b3444611A
VITE_ARC_EURC_TOKEN_ADDRESS=0x89B50855Aa3bE2F677cD6303Cec089B5F319D72a
VITE_AURA_INDEXER_URL=https://api.auraon.xyz
VITE_AURAPREDICT_V5_DEPLOYMENT_BLOCK=47380000
VITE_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID=your_project_id
VITE_CIRCLE_APP_KIT_KEY=optional_app_kit_keyAura provider secrets
AI provider credentials and resolution policy are server-only deployment secrets. They are never placed in frontend environment variables or exposed to app users.
Self-hosted builders can review .env.example in the repository for local setup fields.
Circle Agent Wallet signer
AURA_ORACLE_AUTO_PROPOSE=1
AURA_RESOLVER_SIGNER_MODE=circle-cli
AURA_CIRCLE_AGENT_WALLET_ADDRESS=0x...
AURA_CIRCLE_AGENT_CHAIN=ARC-TESTNET
AURA_ORACLE_AUTO_PROPOSE_MIN_CONFIDENCE=78The agent wallet must be the market authority, owner, resolver, or approved adapter for the selected resolution mode.
Contract deployment
PRIVATE_KEY=0x...
ARC_RPC_URL=https://rpc.testnet.arc.network
ARC_USDC_TOKEN_ADDRESS=0x3600000000000000000000000000000000000000
ARC_EURC_TOKEN_ADDRESS=0x89B50855Aa3bE2F677cD6303Cec089B5F319D72a
npm run deploy:arcDeploy
Domains and Vercel projects
AuraPredict uses one GitHub repo but should use separate Vercel projects when deploying
different roots. The app project deploys the repo root. The docs project deploys the
docs folder.
Docs Vercel project
- Import the same GitHub repo.
- Set Root Directory to
docs. - Use Framework Preset
Other. - Use Output Directory
.. - Add domain
docs.auraon.xyz.
DNS record
Type: CNAME
Name: docs
Value: cname.vercel-dns.comSecurity
Security model and limitations
Wallet custody
AuraPredict never receives private keys. Every transaction is confirmed in the user's wallet.
Testnet only
The current deployment is for Arc Testnet validation and should not be treated as audited mainnet infrastructure, a regulated exchange, a gambling platform, an investment product, or financial advice.
AI limitation
Aura Agent and AI receipts assist research and outcome calculation. They are not a trustless oracle.
Resolution risk
Creator or authority-led resolution requires clear criteria, evidence, and dispute review to avoid ambiguous settlement.
Admin keys
AI run tokens, Gemini keys, and optional resolver private keys must stay in private deployment secrets.
Policy scope
Policy gates are operational safeguards for new activity, not a complete regulatory compliance system.
Before mainnet, AuraPredict still needs an independent contract audit, multisig or
timelocked administration, durable social data storage, a selected oracle/committee
operating policy, and production monitoring.
Current runtime check: public indexer reads the active contract and live test markets. The active authority can be operated through Circle Agent Wallet for eligible Oracle proposals. Aura attestation signing remains separate and intentionally disabled until a dedicated signer and owner-side configuration are ready.
Operating policy: oracle/committee reputation should be based on proposal accuracy, coverage, reversal rate, evidence quality, response time, and scope discipline. The current 78% Oracle auto-propose threshold is experimental and should be calibrated with historical backtests before production use.
Reference